Could the election be determined by first-time voters and Reagan Democrats? Data released this week indicates a monumental shift in the electorate and it’s shaking up how the experts are describing the polls with less than a week left to go.
President Donald Trump’s base is expanding after internal numbers were released from this week’s rallies. His support, it shows, is not just from Republicans or those who voted for him in 2016.
Republican Party Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel has been regularly sharing the data on Twitter.
At Trump’s third rally in Martinsburg, Pennsylvania, on Monday, there were 11,593 attendees, 14.1 percent of who were not Republican, and 21.6 percent of whom did not vote in 2016. At another rally in Lititz, Pennsylvania, on Monday, there were 18,894 attendees, 22.2 percent of who were not registered Republicans, and 20.8 percent of whom did not vote in 2016. Earlier on Monday, at Trump’s first rally in Allentown, Pennsylvania, there were 13,331 attendees, 23.8 percent of whom were not Republicans, and 21.9 percent of whom did not vote in 2016, according to information gathered from signups for the events.
“While Joe Biden holds ZERO events today, @realDonaldTrump is firing up supporters all across PENNSYLVANIA! From his first rally!,” she wrote on Twitter, referring to Democratic nominee Joe Biden, who has scarcely held campaign events.
The Trump campaign has repeatedly accused Biden of hiding in his basement, but Biden’s campaign says they are taking precautions against the spread of coronavirus by not holding large-scale events.
“He’s going to be all across the country in our battleground states,” Biden’s campaign manager, Kate Bedingfield told reporters last week. “He’s going to be fighting for every vote. You’re going to see him do in-person events. You’re going to see him do virtual events.”
Biden typically attends a small rally consisting of between 12 and 50 people, in the mornings, then flies back to Delaware with no appearances for the rest of the day.
Meanwhile, Trump has continued to hold large-scale outdoor campaign events, such as the rally in Manchester, New Hampshire, on Sunday, and the shift is clearly evident. McDaniel says of the 13,263 who attended, 20.4 did not vote in 2016 and 44.8 were not registered Republicans.
“Our supporters in NEW HAMPSHIRE are ready to turn the state red for @realDonaldTrump!,” she wrote.
At Trump’s Oct. 17 event in Janesville, Wisconsin, McDaniel said that 47.5 percent of 13,850 attendees were not Republicans and at his Oct. 14 rally in Des Moines, Iowa, 29.4 percent of 10,134 attendees were Democrats.
At the president’s first rally after recovering from Covid in Florida on Oct. 12, 24.4 percent did not vote in 2016 and 31.8 percent were not Republicans, McDaniel said. Meanwhile, 16.3 percent explicitly stated they were Democrats.
Upcoming Trump campaign events that the president will hold include stops in Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Arizona, and Florida. These do not include other events the rest of the Trump administration is holding.
The shift in the internal polls, experts say, has not yet shown up in national polls but as the election nears, could be evident by the weekend.