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Study reveals Census undercount affects blue, red states differently

The 2020 Census may have missed more than a million people, according to a new study by the Urban Institute.

While the report (pdf) revealed the undercount was “not as severe as expected,” the wrong numbers affected blue and red states differently.

For example, red states Mississippi and Texas were undercounted, leading to receiving less federal funding in key areas.

“We find that the true total populations of Mississippi and Texas were undercounted in our simulated 2020 Census by 1.3 and 1.28 percent, respectively. Blue state Minnesota’s population was net overcounted by 0.76 percent,” the Urban Institute reported.

“If the residents had been counted accurately in the 2020 Census, Texas would receive over $247 million more and Minnesota would receive $156 million less in 2021 federal Medicaid reimbursements,” the report added.

The census undercounts could also affect Texas missing out on an additional Congressional seat when combined with possible undercounts in the 2030 census.

Overall, the report noted a likely undercount of half a percent to the overall U.S. population. Though the percentage was higher than in 2010.

Latinos may have been the biggest undercounted group. In the 2020 election, Latino voters chose Donald Trump by record numbers compared to previous Republican presidents.

The National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials Education Fund pointed out that the undercount could have a negative impact on electoral districts.

Between the 2010 and 2020 Census, Hispanics jumped from 50 to 62 million.

–Wire services