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International aid experts estimate $20 billion for Gaza’s reconstruction. While peace negotiations continue, Trump’s recent comments about occupying Gaza set the world on fire, but I don’t think he intended to make it the 51st state or even a territory. What he proposed was probably a reference to the Marshall Plan following World War II. In those terms it makes perfect sense that, when the fighting stops on a permanent basis, the Gaza Strip could become the jewel of the Mideast, a title once held by Lebanon.
Robert White | History Columnist
Historical Precedents and Punishment
Dating all the way from Roman times when Rome fought Carthage, after winning, they plowed salt into the fields of Carthage to leave the land barren.
After World War I, the allies opted to punish the Austro-Hungarian Empire and the Ottoman Empire by destroying them and requiring large reparations payments to ensure it never happened again. Germany was forbidden from building weapons, and their economic system was so destroyed that basic living needs almost required wheelbarrows of money, this being before the age of checks and plastic. It brought Great Britain to the Middle East, but in the end, it did not prevent World War II, in fact inspiring it.
A Different Approach to Recovery
After World War II, the United States opted not to make the same mistake. Germany, left almost undamaged in World War I, was almost totally destroyed in World War II, and Japan was equally destroyed. In Japan, right after the surrender was signed, Truman put General MacArthur in charge to help rebuild Japan, and he left the emperor in place to help in the peaceful transition. In Japan, like Germany, the American military worked hand in hand with Japanese and Germans, French and English to clear rubble and rebuild the infrastructure.
During the war, in 1944 Secretary of State Henry Morgenthau proposed the Morgenthau Plan to weaken or destroy arms and industry in Germany’s Ruhr Valley and punish Germany during the occupation after the war. However, most of the plan was abandoned in 1947, as it was determined that the plan would have resulted in 25 million Germans dying of starvation. Beginning in 1947, the policies were designed to create a stable and productive Germany. The Marshall Plan, officially known as the ERP, European Recovery Plan began in 1948, donating $13.3 billion ($173.8 billion in today’s dollars) to all of Western Europe with the goal of rebuilding war-torn regions, remove trade barriers, and modernize industry. It was replaced by the Mutual Security Act in 1951.
Challenges and Possibilities for Gaza
One of the intentions of the Marshall Plan was to put a stop to the spread of Communism, and Germany made for the perfect test bed, being divided by the various sectors. The Marshall Plan extended over all of the German sectors except the Soviet sector. The Soviets opted to punish Germany in opposition to the Western approach under Marshall. The difference between the German sectors caused frustration with the Soviets, and in 1949, the Soviets sought to take Berlin by blocking off the land routes between West Germany and West Berlin. The Marshall Plan answer was the Berlin airlift which broke the back of the Soviet blockade. The final benefit of the Marshall Plan was the destruction of the Berlin Wall in 1989.
With history in mind, the concept of a Marshall Plan for the Gaza Strip may not be that far-fetched, but there are some significant hurdles that have to be overcome. The reconstruction efforts face unique challenges. According to World Bank estimates, critical infrastructure damage exceeds $18.5 billion. In the case of Germany and Japan, before any aid was given, both required an unconditional surrender, something that may be somewhat elusive under the current situation.
Besides the government contributions, much of the success of the Marshall Plan was investment in industry, private investment, Hilton, Ford of Germany, Boeing, and others, and they needed stability, and much of the key was opening the area up to commerce.
The history of the Middle East, and in particular Lebanon, and a prolonged war in what was the gem of the Mediterranean may also be a detriment. In the end it is a wonderful goal, but it is going to require capitulation by Hamas, and a stability not common to the area.
–Robert White is a financial advisor and serves as the Metro Voice history editor.
