Donald Trump will likely be the next U.S. president according to research by historian Niall Ferguson.
“It may seem paradoxical that the Democrats are harassing Trump in the courts if they want to run against him. But it makes sense: the prospect of him performing the perp walk attracts media coverage, and media coverage is the free publicity on which Trump has always thrived,” Ferguson wrote.
Ferguson explained that there is a “campaign of lawfare against Trump” but the effort “has already started to backfire.”
“A second Trump act is not just possible. It’s fast becoming my base case,” if the former president ran against Biden, Ferguson, a senior fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institute, wrote in a May 13 op-ed for The Spectator.
Ferguson added, “Every column inch or minute of airtime his legal battles earn him is an inch or a minute less for his Republican rivals for the nomination.”
Ferguson argues that if it were a two-man GOP primary race between Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, there would be “a good deal more uncertainty around the outcome,” given that the governor “still looks to be in contention” in head-to-head polling.
“When voters are polled about this crowded field, Trump is the clear frontrunner, leading DeSantis by an average margin of nearly 30 points, 52.1 percent to 22.9,” Ferguson wrote.
Currently, the Florida governor has intimated he will make a presidential bid announcement in June.
Apart from Trump, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, biotechnology entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, and conservative radio host Larry Elder have announced a 2024 run for the GOP nomination.
“Former President Trump continues to be a strong candidate for the Republican nomination and his support appears durable and consistent,” said Florida Atlantic University (FAU) political science professor Kevin Wagner in a statement accompanying a survey where Trump beats DeSantis in Florida.
Ferguson noted that Trump’s early popularity among GOP presidential hopefuls would play to his advantage, given that the “Republican primary process favours candidates with early leads because most states award delegates on a ‘winner takes all’ or ‘winner takes most’ basis.”
“The lesson of history is clear—the Republican frontrunner usually wins the nomination, and a post-recession incumbent usually loses the presidential election,” Ferguson wrote.
According to Ferguson, no president since Calvin Coolidge has won re-election if a recession has occurred in the two years before the nation votes.
“It does not need to be as severe as the Great Depression that destroyed Herbert Hoover’s presidency. A plain vanilla recession will suffice.”
–Wire services
